There may be a pool somewhere going around predicting the Genie Awards but if there is, it's very 'inside industry'. That's okay because just as the better films of Canada don't need to imitate American cinema neither do the Genie's need to imitate the Oscars. Besides, picking a Genie winner is far harder than predicting who might win an Oscar. For one thing, the politics behind voting for a Genie hasn't quite gelled into something that one can sufficiently base an educated guess on.
Also, (and here is where the Oscars have it over us) there isn't so much buzz surrounding one film over another that guessing best picture becomes a no-brainer. Even having an internationally recogonized director such as David Cronenberg whose film A Dangerous Method is up for best picture, can't secure a vote that might considered a shoe-in.
As to who will win a Gemini, all bets are off. And when all bets are off there is usually no one betting therefore: No Genie pool.
But when two of the best films to come out in 2011 were Canadian than inside-industry or not, it's time to take the Genie to the streets.
Below is the complete list of nominations. I have bolded my choice to win (with a slight explanation) from the categories I feel I can offer a qualified guess choice to win.
BEST MOTION PICTURE
- A DANGEROUS METHOD
- CAFÉ DE FLORE
- MONSIEUR LAZHAR: It's already won the Toronto Critics Association Award for Best Canadian Feature. Just missed out winning an Oscar.
- THE WHISTLEBLOWER
ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN
- JEAN BÉCOTTE - Funkytown
- AIDAN LEROUX, ROB HEPBURN - Edwin Boyd: Citizen Gangster
- JAMES MCATEER - A Dangerous Method - Because it's a period piece that stands out from the rest.
- PATRICE VERMETTE - Café de Flore
- EMELIA WEAVIND - The Bang Bang Club
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
- MIROSLAW BASZAK, C.S.C. - The Bang Bang Club: Tough category. This because it is mostly out doors on location and because it's beautifully shot.
- PIERRE COTTEREAU - Café de Flore
- JON JOFFIN - Daydream Nation
- JEAN-FRANÇOIS LORD - Snow & Ashes
- RONALD PLANTE - Monsieur Lazhar
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
- DENISE CRONENBERG - A Dangerous Method - could go to Keyhole but not enough people saw it. Again...a period piece seperating it from the rest.
- FARNAZ KHAKI-SADIGH - Afghan Luke
- GINETTE MAGNY, EMMANUELLE YOUCHNOVSKI - Café de Flore
- HEATHER NEALE - Keyhole
- MARIE-CHANTALE VAILLANCOURT – Funkytown
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTION
- DAVID CRONENBERG - A Dangerous Method
- STEVEN SILVER - The Bang Bang Club
- JEAN-MARC VALLÉE - Café de Flore
- PHILIPPE FALARDEAU - Monsieur Lazhar - One of the most seamlessly crafted films to come out in a long time - Canadian or otherwise. Falardeau owns every scene.
- LARYSA KONDRACKI - The Whistleblower
ACHIEVEMENT IN EDITING
- JEAN-FRANÇOIS BERGERON - The Year Dolly Parton Was My Mom
- MICHAEL CZARNECKI - In Darkness
- PATRICK DEMERS - Jaloux
- STÉPHANE LAFLEUR - Monsieur Lazhar - Moments linger, moments pass quickly. A great sensibility of timing in this film that could only come from the editing.
- RONALD SANDERS, C.C.E. A.C.E. - A Dangerous Method
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKE-UP (No pick. I wouldn't know where to begin to choose one over the other)
- CHRISTIANE FATTORI, FRÉDÉRIC MARIN - Café de Flore
- AMBER MAKAR - Amazon Falls
- VIRGINIE PARÉ - BumRush
- TAMMY LOU PATE - Snow & Ashes
- LESLIE ANN SEBERT, DAVID R. BEECROFT - Take This Waltz
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
- RAMACHANDRA BORCAR - Jaloux
- MYCHAEL DANNA - The Whistleblower - Danna 's score does exactly what a film score should do - compliment rather than subdue.
- MARTIN LÉON - Monsieur Lazhar
- PHILIP MILLER - The Bang Bang Club
- HOWARD SHORE - A Dangerous Method
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
- JAY BRANNAN - Cloudburst - My Love My Love
- CAROLE FACAL - Starbuck - Quelque part
- MALAJUBE - Good Neighbours - Oeil pour Oeil
- STEVEN PAGE - French Immersion - A Different Sort of Solitude
- JEAN ROBITAILLE, STEVE GALLUCCIO, KIM RICHARDSON - Funkytown - Waiting for your Touch - Because the film is called Funkytown. It better win best song.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (P.S. - they all deserve their award but...)
- FELLAG - Monsieur Lazhar
- GARRET DILLAHUNT - Oliver Sherman
- MICHAEL FASSBENDER - A Dangerous Method - He's good- He'd be great to see on stage and He got ripped out of a Oscar Nom for SHAME.
- PATRICK HUARD - Starbuck
- SCOTT SPEEDMAN - Edwin Boyd: Citizen Gangster
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- ANTOINE BERTRAND - Starbuck
- KEVIN DURAND - Edwin Boyd: Citizen Gangster
- MARIN GERRIER - Café de Flore - The film is so touching that at least one of the performances, Marin's in particular, is bound to be recognized.
- TAYLOR KITSCH - The Bang Bang Club
- VIGGO MORTENSEN - A Dangerous Method
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
- CATHERINE DE LÉAN - Nuit #1
- PASCALE MONTPETIT - The Girl in the White Coat
- VANESSA PARADIS - Café de Flore
- RACHEL WEISZ - The Whistleblower
- MICHELLE WILLIAMS - Take This Waltz - Williams carries this film with a grace that plays perfectly to the script and Polley's direction.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- ROXANA CONDURACHE - The Whistleblower
- HÉLÈNE FLORENT - Café de Flore - Another hauntingly beautiful performance from a truly wonderful film.
- JULIE LEBRETON - Starbuck
- SOPHIE NÉLISSE - Monsieur Lazhar
- CHARLOTTE SULLIVAN - Edwin Boyd: Citizen Gangster
ACHIEVEMENT IN OVERALL SOUND
- STÉPHANE BERGERON, YANN CLEARY, LISE WEDLOCK - Marécages / Wetlands
- PIERRE BERTRAND, SHAUN NICHOLAS GALLAGHER, BERNARD GARIÉPY STROBL MonsieurLazhar
- JEAN MINONDO, JOCELYN CARON, GAVIN FERNANDES, LOUIS GIGNAC - Café de Flore
- LOU SOLAKOFSKI, STEPHAN CARRIER, KIRK LYNDS - The Bang Bang Club - sound is an essential force in this film from gunshots to camera snaps.
- FOREST SUSHKO, CHRISTIAN COOKE - A Dangerous Method
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING (Again - anything would be a guess...but do check out both You Are Here and Wetlands even if they don't win)
- FRED BRENNAN, JAMES BASTABLE, GABE KNOX, MARILEE YORSTON, KEVIN SCHULTZ - You Are Here
- CLAUDE BEAUGRAND, OLIVIER CALVERT, NATALIE FLEURANT, FRANCINE POIRIER - Marécages / Wetlands
- WAYNE GRIFFIN, ROB BERTOLA, TONY CURRIE, ANDY MALCOLM, MICHAEL O'FARRELL - A Dangerous Method
- MARTIN PINSONNAULT, BLAISE BLANCHIER, SIMON MEILLEUR, MIREILLE MORIN, LUC RAYMOND - Café de Flore
- JEREMY MACLAVERTY, DANIEL PELLERIN, GEOFF RAFFAN, JAN RUDY, JOHN SIEVERT, JAMES MARK STEWART - In Darkness
- ANNE ÉMOND - Nuit #1
- EILIS KIRWAN, LARYSA KONDRACKI - The Whistleblower
- KEN SCOTT, MARTIN PETIT - Starbuck - One of the funniest scripts to make it to the screen in a long time. Quick, smart and Fresh.
- JEAN-MARC VALLÉE - Café de Flore
- RYAN WARD, MATTHEW HEITI - Son of the Sunshine
- PHILIPPE FALARDEAU - Monsieur Lazhar - The choices made by Falardeau in his direction are surpassed only by the choices he made in adapting this to a screenplay.
- RYAN REDFORD - Oliver Sherman
- DAVID SHAMOON - In Darkness
- STEVEN SILVER - The Bang Bang Club
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
- DENNIS BERARDI, MATHEW BORRETT, MIKE BORRETT, WILSON CAMERON, OVIDIU CINAZAN, JASON EDWARDH, OLIVER HEARSEY, JIM PRICE, MILAN SCHERE, WOJCIECH ZIELINSKI - A Dangerous Method - Visual effects are part of the film and more evident here than in the other nominees .
- ÉVE BRUNET, JACQUES LÉVESQUE, PHILIPPE ROBERGE - Snow & Ashes
- MARC CÔTÉ, STÉPHANIE BROUSSAUD, GARY CHUNTZ, VINCENT DUDOUET,
- CYNTHIA MOUROU, ERIC NORMANDIN, MARTIN PENSA, LUC SANFAÇON, SYLVAIN THÉROUX, NATHALIE TREMBLAY - Café de Flore
- GEOFFROY LAUZON – Bum Rush
- TOM TURNBULL, IAN BRITTON, ROBERT CROWTHER, TONY CYBULSKI - Edwin Boyd: Citizen Gangster
BEST FEATURE LENGTH DOCUMENTARY (I must leave this untouched as I have not seen any of these documentaries.)
- BEAUTY DAY - Jay Cheel, Kristina McLaughlin, Kevin McMahon, Roman Pizzacalla
- FAMILY PORTRAIT IN BLACK AND WHITE - Julia Ivanova, Boris Ivanov
- THE GUANTANAMO TRAP - Thomas Wallner, Amit Breuer, Patrick Crowe
- LA NUIT, ELLES DANSENT / AT NIGHT, THEY DANCE - Isabelle Lavigne, Stéphane Thibault, Lucie Lambert
- WIEBO'S WAR - David York, Nick Hector, C.C.E., Bryn Hughes, Bonnie Thompson
BEST SHORT DOCUMENTARY - Not Seen
- 75 WATTS - John Cullen
- DERAILMENTS - Chelsea McMullan
- SIRMILIK - Zacharias Kunuk, Joel McConvey, Kristina McLaughlin, Kevin McMahon,
- Michael McMahon, Geoff Morrison, Ryan J. Noth
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT DRAMA - Not Seen
- DOUBLES WITH SLIGHT PEPPER - Ian Harnarine
- HOPE - Pedro Pires, Phoebe Greenberg, Penny Mancuso
- ORA - René Chénier, Philippe Baylaucq
- LA RONDE - Élaine Hébert, Sophie Goyette
BEST ANIMATED SHORT - Not Seen
- CHOKE - Michelle Latimer
- LA CITÉ ENTRE LES MURS / INNER CITY - Alain Fournier
- MUYBRIDGE'S STRINGS - Koji Yamamura, Michael Fukushima, Shuzo John Shiota, Keisuke Tsuchihashi
- ROMANCE - Georges Schwizgebel, René Chénier, Marc Bertrand
- WILD LIFE - Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby, Marcy Page, Bonnie Thompson